After the Black Caps' magnificent come from behind Twenty20 win in Sri Lanka, and Jacob Oram's hat trick I thought I would try (to some extent) to de bunk the lottery theory of T20.

My reasoning is purely mathematical. It is based on sound logic which works a percentage of the time. My experience is captaining Central Districts to three ‘Cricket Max' titles and Canterbury to another. ‘Max Cricket' was 10 overs an innings so is even shorter than T20.
What I looked at when analysing this form of the game was baseball. Yes, T20 is more comparable to baseball than test cricket, which will shock (or actually not shock people).
One of the strongest indicators of strength in a baseball side was not the hitters but the pitching unit. The side that had the better pitchers would dominate most games. How is this so? The video analysts would work out if the hitter could hit high or low or close or away from the body. They divided the pitching zone into nine squares as targets for the pitchers.
If the pitcher could hit the nominated square above the plate then it was in the batter's no hit zone – result: nothing out of the park, batter ineffective. But if the pitchers slipped up five times in the game that could be five homers against a good hitting side. Hit the right square for 100 pitches in a baseball game and you will win (T20 is 120 balls). So the pitching dominates the game. Hence the huge respect for pitchers in the USA who can throw a no hitter.
We took the same philosophy to Central Districts for 10 over cricket (Max). We had squares where to bowl for and then set a field for that. It was at the batter's toes or a variation if he moved (charged) or was effective at fine leg cricket. Our best bowlers were those who could hit the squares and were not those who could bowl the quickest or the best outswinger. When our bowlers hit their targets we closed the opposition down and we won games.
Thus the shorter the game the more precise one has to be. In an innings of T20 there is 120 balls. If one team slips up 15 times that is 15 chances to clear the ropes. If the other side has three bad balls, who should win? Of course if your batters are average they may get 30 bad balls and clear the ropes only 4 times, so it is not a foregone conclusion. With good precision from both sides, it became a very boring affair.
Watch South Africa play T20 and this is happening. They really hit their targets with their bowlers. How many times do you see the ball dribble away a few metres from great yorkers? Sri Lanka do it with their spinners to different zones on the field.
T20 may in fact become less interesting as bowlers learn how to become more like baseball pitchers and close batsmen down. This is totally different form the skill of swing or seam bowling to get the edge in test cricket.
Cricket fans will have a choice to watch the variety they like. But keep in mind precision is the name of the game in T20. It is not a lottery but in fact a highly skilled game which should be dominated by the bowlers' ability to hit the no hit zone.