Jane Nees BOP Regional Councillor www.janenees.co.nz

One of the responsibilities of local government is to plan infrastructure and services for future populations. This is the reason for spatial planning exercises like SmartGrowth here in the Western Bay of Plenty. A lot of work is being done currently to predict what our population may look like in the future – both in size and demographic make-up.

The population of the Bay of Plenty Region has grown steadily during the last 26 years, from 194,622 in 1986 to about 277,300 – an increase of 43 per cent. To understand the impact of not planning adequately for growth, you only have to look at Tauranga City. The city's population increased by 93.4 per cent during the period from 1986-2012. This is why the city is in catch-up mode in the provision of infrastructure, and why it has debt issues.

Demographers tell us steady growth is anticipated during the next 20 years, with the population in the Bay reaching about 317,370 by 2031. This will be 14.5 per cent above 2011. Most of this growth will be in the Western Bay of Plenty. They also tell us by 2031, more than four-fifths of the Bay of Plenty region's projected growth will be in the age groups of 65-plus years. The ratio of elderly (65-plus years) to children (0-14 years) is projected to increase rapidly from its present seven elderly for every 10 children, to 13:10 by 2031. Both Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty are expected to have more elderly than children by 2016.

So what does this mean for planners? Wider footpaths for mobility scooters? Different sorts of recreational facilities? A larger proportion of smaller residences required? More hospital beds and more elder care workers? Even though I take exception to being classed as ‘elderly' when I'm 65 – and even considering we're likely to be more active as we age – our changing demographic structure is a real issue and needs to be planned for now.