Straight from city council A personal view, by Councillor Steve Morris

'He's predicted twelve of the last three recessions,” it was said about one economic commentator. Economists rarely forecast the future correctly; however, one thing we do know with some certainty is that Tauranga is running out of land fast and there are consequences for the local building industry.

The final sections are being developed in Papamoa East and Tauriko right now; with no significant subdivisions planned until 2023, at the earliest. The city is facing a shortage of 1000 homes over the next three years (assuming current demand continues). If significant new subdivisions aren't started by 2023, there'll be an undersupply of nearly 5000 homes over the next ten years.

If this continues, all things being equal, the law of supply and demand means both house prices and rents will skyrocket and homelessness will get worse. But there are some worrying factors that may suppress demand. Slowing house sales and falling prices in Auckland will make it harder for our largest group of migrants to move to Tauranga. Builders and associated services may leave town as new work dries up, suppressing housing demand but also the local economy.

For the sake of home buyers and our economy we need subdivisions in Tauriko West and Te Tumu to progress swiftly; however, both are reliant on Government funding road upgrades to open these areas up; SH29 and the Papamoa East Interchange. Fortunately, it appears Government is starting to realise this with a positive meeting between Minster Phil Twyford and local Mayors on the issue last week.