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Daniel Hutchinson From The Hutch |
Some people have a very low opinion of numbers.
The things they say about numbers verges on slander – they're boring, soulless things. ‘Numbers don't tell you everything', they chant. ‘Oh, she's just a number cruncher, what would she know?'
This is just some of the more overt numberism that goes on, every day in society.
But I'm here to tell you that numbers are anything but boring. They can be your best friend or your worst enemy, depending on how you treat them.
Take this latest virus-craze that's sweeping the world, not only infecting people with the flu but whole economies as well.
People are so bored with numbers that they forget that if you have the wrong number, it can kill you too.
For example, the Imperial College of London estimates that the low numbers in people's bank accounts, from 2008-2010 – the height of the Global Financial Crisis - was estimated to have caused an additional 260,000 cancer deaths in 34 OECD countries. People simply couldn't afford health care.
Also, if you take millions of dollars out of the tax take and the government coffers, that's millions of dollars that could have been used to buy drugs and save people from other health problems. And the problems get worse when you start looking at less developed countries.
So shutting down borders is a good plan to protect against a virus but it's a terrible idea if you want to protect your economy from a deadly recession.
Someone should put a number on that.
Play the virus market
Now, if you have a KiwiSaver account or a share portfolio you may have noticed the numbers getting smaller.
All the advisors tell you not to worry, play the long game. Don't even look at it.
Swings and roundabouts etc, etc, etc.
And, at the end of the day, where are you going to put your money? Nowhere is safe from a recession.
However, I'm a bit more helpful than that and I reckon you could do well out of playing the grocery market.
For example, anyone who had a massive stockpile of toilet paper before the virus panic-buying set in, will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Why toilet paper? Dunno, but like most financial markets I'm guessing the herd mentality just overcomes logic from time to time.
So, if you didn't get in before the big rush on bog paper, you could leap ahead of the market by investing in those bidet hoses that are really popular in Asia.
My other big stock tips are tissues and chicken soup.
Basically, if you have a bidet hose, 28 cans of chicken soup and lots of tissues you should be able to make it through a mild case of virus.
Rates raise eyebrows
One of our regular columnists – Tauranga City Council councillor Steve Morris – produced some interesting numbers today, on page 12.
His numbers show that while Tauranga ratepayers (and Western Bay for the matter), pay some of the highest residential rates in the country, on the flip side, we pay some of the lowest commercial rates of any of the major New Zealand cities.
These numbers were so interesting they made my eyebrows raise by 13mm. This is a significant fraction more than just average surprise, it's far to the right of the parabola curve.
This is set against a backdrop of the council's proposed 12.5 per cent rates rise, which is being sold as a necessary answer to previous councils not spending enough.
It's just a matter of who gets squeezed to pay for it.
Of course big infrastructure projects cost big dollars but simply pouring numbers into a concrete mixer doesn't always solve these problems. You might just land up with dodgy foundations like that parking building on Harington St. It should have been one part planning, one part common sense and one part money.
A load of rubbish
On pages 6-7 today we look at the rubbish collection conundrum facing residents and councillors at the moment.
People will probably end up with a rates-funded rubbish and recycling collection whether they want it or not.
Council polling suggests people are overwhelmingly in favour of it but, once again, I suspect it's a case of ‘show me the money' before people are truly convinced.
For example, I really wanted a brand new car but after looking at the price tags and comparing that with my bank account, what I really want now is the car that I've already got.
Anyway, I've got to go and count sheep now.
Good night
daniel@thesun.co.nz