Rainfall, soil moisture low - another drought possible?

Bill Webb
Feed Solutions
Outlook

There's been less rainfall during the last two months than at this time last year. And that's a concern because when soil moisture reserves are down, things can deteriorate very quickly – just as they did in last summer's drought.

Some people seem to think that there's no way we will get two droughts in a row, but it can happen. We are still in the same neutral weather phase at as last year's drought.
It might seem okay now, but in summer the soil can dry out very quickly; and there will be challenges, as we have been averaging 20 mm of rain a month for the last two months, which is behind the same two months last year. As well, our wet paddocks are dryer than this time last year; some drains have little or no water in them and some farm blocks are dryer at this time than they have been in the past.

Farmers know when soil moisture reserves are down, things can change rapidly.
But it's hard to sell feed to farmers when they have good grass growth and plenty of silage stored.

We can't grow a whole lot of maize on spec, hoping farmers will buy it, because it is a very expensive crop to grow and the risks of growing it without forward orders are high.

This season we are growing the usual volumes of feed until we get a better idea of what the weather is likely to do. We can draw on extra supplies if necessary, and we still had some silage and threshed rye grass straw left from last year.

However, farmers shouldn't fly by the seat of their pants, as far as feed is concerned. When they get into trouble they go looking for extra – but sometimes it's too late – and you don't want to be under-feeding cows especially in a potentially high payout year.

Warmer temperatures affect rye grass growth rates and it doesn't take much extra heat in the soil for that to happen. I know a lot of farmers were shocked at how quickly it went off last year, with the heat and wind burn, and the prediction is for warmer than normal temperatures this summer.

If some farmers hadn't left everything until the last minute last summer, there wouldn't have been the need to bring anywhere near as much feed from the South Island as we had to.

I hope farmers have learned the lessons last season taught. That drought was clearly signaled, but some left it so late to buy in feed, they were forced to buy straw as a replacement – but straw lacks the nutritional value of maize silage. Because some farmers wouldn't commit to maize silage, growers, ourselves included, contracted surplus maize silage crops to grain which meant no maize was available for silage when it was really needed.

It can be a rocky road if you don't plan properly, because the quality of the feed you get won't always be as good in times of tight supply.

We can supply maize silage, grass silage in bulk and bales, lucerne silage, sweet corn silage, rye grass silage, rye and clover silage bales; and also meadow hay, pea vine hay, rye grass straw, oat straw, wheat straw and barley straw.

We grow on leased land in several areas, and have contract growers in Otaki, Canterbury and Hawke's Bay.

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