Jane Nees BOP Regional Councillor www.janenees.co.nz

I recently received a presentation on the major drivers of change to 2025 as part of a strategic planning exercise.

On the whole the trends are relatively positive for New Zealand since nations which offer relatively more safety, security and harmony will achieve international competitive advantage as ‘safe havens' for tourism, permanent living, and some categories of investment. If New Zealand also capitalises on its abundant water supplies, its sustainable green image, its capacity to produce protein and its potential for renewable energy, it looks pretty positive for us.

The following issues were considered very relevant for our global future:

• The cost of energy – particularly of oil and natural gas – will increase substantially.

• There will be more frequent and severe weather events resulting in more flooding, prolonged droughts and more unseasonable cold snaps. Current engineering and safety standards will no longer be sufficient and we can expect substantial damage and cost.

• Changing lifestyles, work styles and families will mean more older people working longer, more urbanisation and changing living patterns.

• Shortage of clean potable water is already a major threat to human health and a limitation to industrial development in many parts of the world. Secure sources of clean water exports will become increasingly valuable.

• Technological change will speed up, featured by highly evolved electronic connectivity and computerisation, energy efficient systems and advances in medicine.

• Global and New Zealand economic conditions will slowly improve spurred by technology and by China and India – but will be increasingly disrupted by political instability, conflicts, energy costs, water availability and environmental concerns.

The future reality may be quite different, but it is reassuring that we are well positioned here at the bottom of the world.

If you have any views on this or any other issue, please email me: neesj@xtra.co.nz or phone 07 579 5150. Or you can check out my website www.janenees.co.nz